Very astute article. I also believe we're looking at a Tory win in the next election whenever that may be. The size of the win is likely the only aspect that the LPC might have control over depending on who is selected to lead.
After watching Mark Carney's interview video last night I believe he's a good choice. He's sharp. He's quick-witted and funny but with a diplomacy that is rare nowadays. I don't think he will take Poilievre's bs or the bs from his MPs and voter base as quietly as Trudeau did.
Don't get me wrong. Trudeau managed Covid very well, better than most. He did what he could when the hard times hit too but he couldn't make it enough. He was extremely patient and diplomatic in dealing with the tidal wave of hate that hit him during and after Covid, but I'm hoping a new leader not involved in the Covid years or the hard times afterwards won't have the baggage Trudeau had and won't put up with Poilievre's constant jabs.
I sure hope you're right about the lasting power of Poilievre and the CPC too. I hope it will be short-lived as much as I hope and pray Trump's reign of terror is short-lived. Small cracks are starting to appear in Trump's foundation, so.. 🤞.
I think if Carney wins then the LPC have a real shot to limit losses and keep the Conservatives to a minority which would be a really good result right now. Still a long shot, but actually see it as possible folllowing Careny’s appearance.
Triggering the Emergencies Act was disqualifying for the LPC. They crossed a line, were offside and were stun-fucked as what to do. They won't recover, and don't deserve to. Full stop.
I have, but if it's the EKOS poll, there seems to be some weighting issues that have skewed results. IMHO, Abacus seems to be the most most accurate and who I think are most often on the bulls-eye.
It was a tactic. Trump used Covid as a mechanism to see how many laws he could get changed or to what state he could push people into during a crisis. The liberals failed, but so did Pierre.
How can you support a man who has repeatedly thumbed his nose at the taxpayer with SNC Lavolin, WE, dismissing Jody Wilson, illegally enacting the Federal legislation against a legal peaceful protest, wasting money on ArrCanada….? He has been shovelling money out the back of trucks. He has increased our debt hugely after saying it will be balanced by the end of his first term. Carney has been an advisor in JT’s fiscal policy. The only promise I know that he kept was legalizing pot. Whoowee now that’s world shaking! There are none so blind as they who will not see! Smoke another reefer kids.
The only thing you said that is of any substance is that there are none so blind as those who will not see.
No one anticipated a pandemic, the likes of which none of us have ever seen. Trudeau got us through that. He got CERB approved. He did what his science experts and public health advisor suggested. Canada wasnt completely unscathed but we managed better than many did when one considers total infections, total deaths, and how people managed economically with Cerb and other monetary assistance programs. That costed money, and lots of it, but what was the alternative?
No one could have foreseen the cost of everything, especially food soaring sky high when mandates were finally lifted either. Because everything was closed down including manufacturing and food production, supplies were limited. Costs go up and down with supply and demand. Also, wholesalers put up prices for higher than needed for maximum profit. That's their fault, not Trudeau's or the Liberal government.
That pandemic, the mandates, the vaccination mandate, the deaths and the number of infections caused such loneliness, anxiety and extreme anger in people. Guess who got blamed? PP certainly didn't all he could to take advantage of that.
Admittedly, Poilievre and the Conservatives may still win the next election, but now that there's new kids on the Liberal block he likely will not win with such a tidy majority. In fact, there is a possibility he may not win a majority at all.
I think this is mostly right, although I think it's possible poilievre is going to be such a disaster in an actual campaign against other people that he could push the result into a minority.
But the reality we are going to elect a government so divorced from objective reality is pretty grim, especially in a moment where the existential threat of something like climate change is being completely denied by the conservatives. Will we come back from that or do people have to stay in that pit once they've thrown themselves into it?
I have long had the expectation that Poilievre would end up throwing mud and losing ground in a leaders' debate. The question is, will the Conservative lead at the start of a campaign be so wide that the leaders' debate no longer even matters?
Kamala smashed Trump in the debate but it didn’t seem to matter. They still voted for him. Same thing could happen here. People are unhappy about real things so I’m not sure it will matter much. Maybe give the Conservatives a minority instead of majority
I don't think debates even really matter that much. The problem will be they're going to have to at least outline some policies deeper than axe the houses or whatever and answer some questions about them rather than just be dicks. I don't think they can, especially him. Will it matter who knows.
It seems we are in a bit of a pinch. Trudeau, I believe, was/is at his core all that we hoped he would be. He was/is a concerned and compassionate leader. With flaws and these flaws were in fairness shown for all to see. Over and over and over and over again...and the the Truckers came and there was the usual second term scandal in
Quebec. Then there was his biggest problem, the economy after Covid.
Finally, the Liberals failed to communicate well or pull the nation along.
Yes, Mr. Trudeau was all I expected him to be, an empty, but very stylish, suit beholden to Canada's oligopolies; telcos, banks, grocery at the same time pandering to the NDP to stay in power and blowing the self-balancing budget. Quite the trifecta. He left in his wake a non-competitive, guilt ridden country totally unprepared for today's real politik
This is something I needed to read today. Somehow no one else is talking about what happens after the election? We lived through many awful years of Harper and I don’t think Poilievre has his staying power. Time to start strategizing about what comes next.
We seem to have forgotten all the foreign actors who have done their part to bring Trudeau and the liberals down with misinformation etc. Russia doesn’t want anymore help going to Ukraine so having PeePee in power will stop that. And on the India front it will be interesting if PeePee increases immigration from India… And of course let’s not forget Stevie and the IDU. Hard to believe Canadians are buying the CONservative narrative. I wonder how quickly Canadians will have buyers remorse.
I believe it would be more accurate to say Thomas Mulcair (NDP leader in 2015) moved “right” when it looked like he would win and the rest is history. Still all these things we “see” and “believe” are our own perceptions.
Perception isn't necessarily reality. It's often just a perceived reality of the individual. Without backing up our perceptions they are just opinion. Opinion isn't always reality either.
There will not be 10 candidates or more running for the Liberal leadership. Already a few have dropped out. It appears Carney is a favoured but Freeland hasn't thrown her hat in yet. I'm skeptical of her chances to bring the LPC to a win as the leader since she's almost as disliked as Trudeau. 😥 Sadly even in Canada, like the USA, I do not think Canada is going to elect a woman prime minister yet. Remember Kim Campbell, the sacrificial lamb of CPC?
There is a lot of hope to at the very least increase LPC popularity and the number of Liberals elected once a candidate is chosen.
I agree with you about perception not being reality, i was just being “nice”. Sorry.
Also agree that like US we are unlikely to elect a woman but Freeland like Harris will carry JT’s baggage.
IMO, she would be smart not to run this time. Carney as an outsider will have a better chance.
Many liberal voters will vote Conservative this time around it is what they do they never seem to believe despite all evidence to contrary that the NDP would be better than another Conservative govt.
I guess, unlike our US cousins, Canada isn’t ready to elect a POC.
And certainly not someone who dresses well, speaks both official languages fluently and wears a turban.
I've yet to see anyone address the true rationale for Trudeau's unpopularity - advertising works and the right in Canada and abroad have been spending tens of millions annually smearing the man. The level of assault on the man is unprecedented from the veritable plethora of right wing non-profits funnelling billionaire dollars to the cause (Fraser, TheHub, Canada Strong and Proud, True North, etc.) which we pay for through tax breaks, to Alberta literally budgeting 30 million annually through their "energy war room" and the entire foreign-owned Post Media conglomeration and virtually every dictator or demagogue in the world - he's actively hated by Modi, Trump, Bolsonaro, Erdogan, Johnson, Netanyahu, Putin, Xi, the US GOP etc. And they all coordinate through the IDU under good ol' Stephen Harper.
With those resources I could have Saint Teresa exhumed, excommunicated, and reburied face down in unconsecrated ground.
No, it's not foreign interference that has caused Trudeau to plunge in popularity. There's a group of people who have always hated the man (i.e. conservatives who hate Pierre Trudeau's legacy and are prejudiced by guilty be association), but the voters who have shifted from pro-Liberal to pro-Conservative in recent years are driven mostly by Trudeau's poor handling of expectations and lack of introspection.
It's not an accident that Trudeau's bleeding of support has coincided with him becoming an increasingly unapologetic Prime Minister. Harper and Poilievre are always insufferably unapologetic which means they appeal consistently to fans of dominant patriarchs, whereas Trudeau has attempted to behave both as a soft feminist and an indominable alpha male during the time of his government, which ultimately pleases no one.
It is both and you have to be wilfully blind not to see it. And what is it most of these foreign leaders (and their bot farms) have in common? The IDU (Modi, Netanyahu, Erdogan) and Stephen Harper either in their DM list (Putin) or sneaking in the backdoor (Trump Whitehouse) - no coincidence Harper is also on the payroll for both SK & AB while acting as an informal advisor to Ford and every other conservative in the country.
Harper, arguably the most damaging Prime Minister in Canadian history (think FIPA, destruction of science, hatred of First Nations (GLAD brand bodybags rather than critical medicine, anyone?) is still very much invested in and running conservative parties at all levels in Canada.
Exactly this. And not even our national broadcaster has delved into this. They seem anxious to go light on PP, perhaps thinking that will save their bacon if he comes to power.
In the meantime, CBC and all other media outlets let PP coast in his lack of security clearance, his associations with Diagolon et al, and foreign interference in the Conservative leadership race.
I think what you say could be right, and you watch this far closer than I do. However, the concern I have is that ousting them will require electoral turnout. How do we ensure we don't just get repeats of what is going on in Ontario where Ford basically does a lot of this same playbook (if not quite as angry), but continues to get away with blatant corruption and winning elections because people are either not paying attention, believing the rhetoric, or just ignoring everything and not showing up to vote?
I see the argument that this is part of why Ford wants an election soon, as his tactic of blaming the feds for everything falls apart with Poilievre in charge, but I still get concerned that people just don't care enough to make anything better.
I think people care, it's that no other party is making a cogent appeal to them. The NDP and Liberal moved to the right in order to counter Harper, that changed the dynamic of Canadian politics. Trudeau's handling of the COVID pandemic, especially the monthly payments (essentially a guaranteed annual wage) was extremely popular. That and other of his policies that went to the left of the NDP in 2015 were highly popular. The NDP, in 2015, moved to the right and neither Liberals nor NDP have picked up on the popularity of the Liberals' "left" policies since 2015. It's as if they want the Conservatives to win.
Poilievre has not been campaign tested. It is also difficult to point to anything substantive or positive that he has accomplished for the nation. You have to be more than something more than someone who opposes everything. You have to stand for something, and with respect to what Poilievre stands for beyond AXE THE RAX and cutting taxes for the wealthy , there isn't much to see. I believe the next election has to be one where we vote for the candidate that has the best chance of defeating a Conservative. At present I am concerned about the Liberal Leadership contest. If the Liberals go into the leadership race with 10 or 12 contestants, as appears likely then in my view they are handing the election to the Tories on a platter.
PP has been campaigning his whole life. He knows how to work a crowd, he knows you don't really need policy anymore. He is out there with working class people almost every week telling them that he stands for them and that he understands their problems. That all a leader has to do
This is the most prepared man and political machine this election.
Even though I am at the opposite end of the political spectrum to this man, I can't deny that he has done the work to earn power. I only wish my representatives had worked this hard.
Yes, He is out there doing all of that. This the man who when he was in Stephen Harper's cabinet, promoted right to work law. If you for one second believe this supports worker's rights then you better give your head a shake and have it examined while you are at it As for doing the work to earn power. He has certainly embraced every neo fascist right wing nut bar group, out there. n my book that earns him nothing but a place in the scrapbook of history.
I didn’t say he supports worker’s rights. He will do anything to secure a path to power, even if it means talking to and listening to workers. He has a clear history of making working lives worse. As well he shows every indication that he will continue fight against the protections that the labour movement has won for us over the years.
The conservative project is to create a past to idolize by making the present miserable.
You are right, but as Glenn T. notes, no other party is working at countering his argument. They are leaving the whole show to Poilievre and sometimes I think the Liberals and the NDP want the Conservatives to win.
I don't think the NDP and the Liberals want the Conservatives to win, but I do think they are so ego driven they are unwilling to cooperate, by staying out of races they can't win. Why run a candidate in a riding that you lose by thousands of votes, when the second place party in the Conservative riding could easily win, if you did not contest the riding? It's time to get rid of First past the post, a promise Trudeau reneged on exhibiting once again self interest over national interest.
I disagree. PP took advantage of an opportunity. He saw the dissatisfaction with Trudeau and the LPC party. It doesn't take smarts to see that was happening. He used the increasing hate for the PM and Liberal government to his advantage, changing his policies on Covid-19, mandates and vaccinations 180° to suit a growing anxiety, frustration, and anger for how long it took to get some semblance of control over the pandemic. He rubbed shoulders with the conveyors and had photo ops with some of Canada's worst, like Jeremy MacKenzie, Diagolon leader, etc., bought them coffee and doughnuts. Since then he has balked everything the Liberal/NDP partnership introduced. Is that smart? I guess it depends on your perspective. I think it's disingenuous and conniving. If I'm right it will not take long before he shoots himself In the foot because their are already many people who don't trust or like him but will vote for him anyway. He is walking on some very thin ice because Canadians are expecting him to make everything perfect.
If Canadians are expecting Poilievre to make everything perfect, then they are deluding themselves. Above all the least we should expect of any politician is some degree of ethical standard, integrity, transparency and common decency. We have seen none of that from Poilievre. If as Poilievre claims, Canada is broken, then the Conservatives since their merger with the Alliance have done far more than any other party to that being so.
Why do I feel like an aspirin and an anti anxiety med...with every Political write up ?? !!! The USA has been broken, at least for now ( how happy is Putin do you think ???? ) And it will be a HARD road back, uphill to regain their full Freedoms lost. But for Canada to fall too, from their unfathomable bombastic mistake, it will take more Gravol than I have available ..... kidding, not kidding.
Indeed. Poillievre is an angry man. Maybe he should be angry. Maybe, and I believe this wholeheartedly, it's just more of Poillievre being Poillievre. Angry Man has been his role in Parliament for the past 20 years. He knows no other way of facing the cameras. He is not Policy Man. He is not Visionary Man. He is not, and never will be, Statesman Man. Poillievre is angry man. Period.
"When they do, the left ought to be there" Huh? The basic problem in Canadian politics is that there is no "left" to "be there". Until we have an effective socialist party in this country, the libertarians will keep on, not winning, but bypassing failure.
There is a left it just is what it is everywhere, divided lazy and as untethered from reality in its own way as the right is. If you mean the NDP, that's not "the left" it's just slightly more progressive centrism.
The right just appeals to a lot more people because pulling the ladder up on people who are different appeals to a lot more people. That's all poilievre is doing, the unpopularity of Trudeau just makes the job easier.
I still think his refusal to obtain security clearance is a major red flag. Most reporting on this is suppressed right now, maybe a campaign will shine a spotlight on this.
It's been observed that successful leaders tend to ride the one thing that brought them to power, and have great trouble changing course in that underlying theme, and then fail when their theme no long forts the times.
Trudeau's 'sunny ways' has log expired, but that's to be expected after a decade.
PP may be the first leader who's theme ('are the tax') has already expired before he even takes office. He will probably still win by momentum, but can he pivot to the next theme ('Trump')?
One quibble about an otherwise sensible analysis: when you use the phrase "post-pandemic", it reinforces the lazy complacency that is still costing lives and burdening more and more of us with persistent health damage. You should know better.
I think there are many things that are outside the control of politicians. At best they can nudge things one way or another. Change takes longer than people appreciate too so I won't be surprised if we aren't going to experience one government after another getting voted out. Some things are going to make life for Canadians more difficult and they happen far from our boarders.
I've got $5 on the Bloc forming the official opposition. It's not what I want, it's what I predict.
Very astute article. I also believe we're looking at a Tory win in the next election whenever that may be. The size of the win is likely the only aspect that the LPC might have control over depending on who is selected to lead.
After watching Mark Carney's interview video last night I believe he's a good choice. He's sharp. He's quick-witted and funny but with a diplomacy that is rare nowadays. I don't think he will take Poilievre's bs or the bs from his MPs and voter base as quietly as Trudeau did.
Don't get me wrong. Trudeau managed Covid very well, better than most. He did what he could when the hard times hit too but he couldn't make it enough. He was extremely patient and diplomatic in dealing with the tidal wave of hate that hit him during and after Covid, but I'm hoping a new leader not involved in the Covid years or the hard times afterwards won't have the baggage Trudeau had and won't put up with Poilievre's constant jabs.
I sure hope you're right about the lasting power of Poilievre and the CPC too. I hope it will be short-lived as much as I hope and pray Trump's reign of terror is short-lived. Small cracks are starting to appear in Trump's foundation, so.. 🤞.
I think if Carney wins then the LPC have a real shot to limit losses and keep the Conservatives to a minority which would be a really good result right now. Still a long shot, but actually see it as possible folllowing Careny’s appearance.
Agreed! Poilievre will not be tough enough on Trump either. I know Carney will.
Triggering the Emergencies Act was disqualifying for the LPC. They crossed a line, were offside and were stun-fucked as what to do. They won't recover, and don't deserve to. Full stop.
Have you seen yesterday's poll results. LPC are only 5 to 7 points behind the CPC.
I have, but if it's the EKOS poll, there seems to be some weighting issues that have skewed results. IMHO, Abacus seems to be the most most accurate and who I think are most often on the bulls-eye.
https://338canada.com/federal.htm
Yup. LPC is done. They need a time out, and will get one. https://338canada.com/federal.htm
It was a tactic. Trump used Covid as a mechanism to see how many laws he could get changed or to what state he could push people into during a crisis. The liberals failed, but so did Pierre.
I couldn’t have said this better.
How can you support a man who has repeatedly thumbed his nose at the taxpayer with SNC Lavolin, WE, dismissing Jody Wilson, illegally enacting the Federal legislation against a legal peaceful protest, wasting money on ArrCanada….? He has been shovelling money out the back of trucks. He has increased our debt hugely after saying it will be balanced by the end of his first term. Carney has been an advisor in JT’s fiscal policy. The only promise I know that he kept was legalizing pot. Whoowee now that’s world shaking! There are none so blind as they who will not see! Smoke another reefer kids.
The only thing you said that is of any substance is that there are none so blind as those who will not see.
No one anticipated a pandemic, the likes of which none of us have ever seen. Trudeau got us through that. He got CERB approved. He did what his science experts and public health advisor suggested. Canada wasnt completely unscathed but we managed better than many did when one considers total infections, total deaths, and how people managed economically with Cerb and other monetary assistance programs. That costed money, and lots of it, but what was the alternative?
No one could have foreseen the cost of everything, especially food soaring sky high when mandates were finally lifted either. Because everything was closed down including manufacturing and food production, supplies were limited. Costs go up and down with supply and demand. Also, wholesalers put up prices for higher than needed for maximum profit. That's their fault, not Trudeau's or the Liberal government.
That pandemic, the mandates, the vaccination mandate, the deaths and the number of infections caused such loneliness, anxiety and extreme anger in people. Guess who got blamed? PP certainly didn't all he could to take advantage of that.
Admittedly, Poilievre and the Conservatives may still win the next election, but now that there's new kids on the Liberal block he likely will not win with such a tidy majority. In fact, there is a possibility he may not win a majority at all.
I think this is mostly right, although I think it's possible poilievre is going to be such a disaster in an actual campaign against other people that he could push the result into a minority.
But the reality we are going to elect a government so divorced from objective reality is pretty grim, especially in a moment where the existential threat of something like climate change is being completely denied by the conservatives. Will we come back from that or do people have to stay in that pit once they've thrown themselves into it?
I have long had the expectation that Poilievre would end up throwing mud and losing ground in a leaders' debate. The question is, will the Conservative lead at the start of a campaign be so wide that the leaders' debate no longer even matters?
Kamala smashed Trump in the debate but it didn’t seem to matter. They still voted for him. Same thing could happen here. People are unhappy about real things so I’m not sure it will matter much. Maybe give the Conservatives a minority instead of majority
I don't think debates even really matter that much. The problem will be they're going to have to at least outline some policies deeper than axe the houses or whatever and answer some questions about them rather than just be dicks. I don't think they can, especially him. Will it matter who knows.
It seems we are in a bit of a pinch. Trudeau, I believe, was/is at his core all that we hoped he would be. He was/is a concerned and compassionate leader. With flaws and these flaws were in fairness shown for all to see. Over and over and over and over again...and the the Truckers came and there was the usual second term scandal in
Quebec. Then there was his biggest problem, the economy after Covid.
Finally, the Liberals failed to communicate well or pull the nation along.
Yes, Mr. Trudeau was all I expected him to be, an empty, but very stylish, suit beholden to Canada's oligopolies; telcos, banks, grocery at the same time pandering to the NDP to stay in power and blowing the self-balancing budget. Quite the trifecta. He left in his wake a non-competitive, guilt ridden country totally unprepared for today's real politik
This is something I needed to read today. Somehow no one else is talking about what happens after the election? We lived through many awful years of Harper and I don’t think Poilievre has his staying power. Time to start strategizing about what comes next.
We seem to have forgotten all the foreign actors who have done their part to bring Trudeau and the liberals down with misinformation etc. Russia doesn’t want anymore help going to Ukraine so having PeePee in power will stop that. And on the India front it will be interesting if PeePee increases immigration from India… And of course let’s not forget Stevie and the IDU. Hard to believe Canadians are buying the CONservative narrative. I wonder how quickly Canadians will have buyers remorse.
I believe it would be more accurate to say Thomas Mulcair (NDP leader in 2015) moved “right” when it looked like he would win and the rest is history. Still all these things we “see” and “believe” are our own perceptions.
And perception is reality.🤷🏽♂️
Perception isn't necessarily reality. It's often just a perceived reality of the individual. Without backing up our perceptions they are just opinion. Opinion isn't always reality either.
There will not be 10 candidates or more running for the Liberal leadership. Already a few have dropped out. It appears Carney is a favoured but Freeland hasn't thrown her hat in yet. I'm skeptical of her chances to bring the LPC to a win as the leader since she's almost as disliked as Trudeau. 😥 Sadly even in Canada, like the USA, I do not think Canada is going to elect a woman prime minister yet. Remember Kim Campbell, the sacrificial lamb of CPC?
There is a lot of hope to at the very least increase LPC popularity and the number of Liberals elected once a candidate is chosen.
Btw i very much remember what happened to Kim Campbell. It’s why I believe Freeland should not run this time.
If she runs, Carney will beat her and she will never recover and be able to run again.
I agree with you about perception not being reality, i was just being “nice”. Sorry.
Also agree that like US we are unlikely to elect a woman but Freeland like Harris will carry JT’s baggage.
IMO, she would be smart not to run this time. Carney as an outsider will have a better chance.
Many liberal voters will vote Conservative this time around it is what they do they never seem to believe despite all evidence to contrary that the NDP would be better than another Conservative govt.
I guess, unlike our US cousins, Canada isn’t ready to elect a POC.
And certainly not someone who dresses well, speaks both official languages fluently and wears a turban.
Agreed.
Right after PP’s first budget drops cuts to social programs and increases the retirement age to 67 on the way to 70!
Oh and cuts to all govt departments which believe it or not doesn’t hire ANY EEs who spend money in their community!
But cuts taxes that will benefit those already making the most money!
I've yet to see anyone address the true rationale for Trudeau's unpopularity - advertising works and the right in Canada and abroad have been spending tens of millions annually smearing the man. The level of assault on the man is unprecedented from the veritable plethora of right wing non-profits funnelling billionaire dollars to the cause (Fraser, TheHub, Canada Strong and Proud, True North, etc.) which we pay for through tax breaks, to Alberta literally budgeting 30 million annually through their "energy war room" and the entire foreign-owned Post Media conglomeration and virtually every dictator or demagogue in the world - he's actively hated by Modi, Trump, Bolsonaro, Erdogan, Johnson, Netanyahu, Putin, Xi, the US GOP etc. And they all coordinate through the IDU under good ol' Stephen Harper.
With those resources I could have Saint Teresa exhumed, excommunicated, and reburied face down in unconsecrated ground.
No, it's not foreign interference that has caused Trudeau to plunge in popularity. There's a group of people who have always hated the man (i.e. conservatives who hate Pierre Trudeau's legacy and are prejudiced by guilty be association), but the voters who have shifted from pro-Liberal to pro-Conservative in recent years are driven mostly by Trudeau's poor handling of expectations and lack of introspection.
It's not an accident that Trudeau's bleeding of support has coincided with him becoming an increasingly unapologetic Prime Minister. Harper and Poilievre are always insufferably unapologetic which means they appeal consistently to fans of dominant patriarchs, whereas Trudeau has attempted to behave both as a soft feminist and an indominable alpha male during the time of his government, which ultimately pleases no one.
Uh yeah? No.
It is both and you have to be wilfully blind not to see it. And what is it most of these foreign leaders (and their bot farms) have in common? The IDU (Modi, Netanyahu, Erdogan) and Stephen Harper either in their DM list (Putin) or sneaking in the backdoor (Trump Whitehouse) - no coincidence Harper is also on the payroll for both SK & AB while acting as an informal advisor to Ford and every other conservative in the country.
Harper, arguably the most damaging Prime Minister in Canadian history (think FIPA, destruction of science, hatred of First Nations (GLAD brand bodybags rather than critical medicine, anyone?) is still very much invested in and running conservative parties at all levels in Canada.
Exactly this. And not even our national broadcaster has delved into this. They seem anxious to go light on PP, perhaps thinking that will save their bacon if he comes to power.
In the meantime, CBC and all other media outlets let PP coast in his lack of security clearance, his associations with Diagolon et al, and foreign interference in the Conservative leadership race.
This.
I think what you say could be right, and you watch this far closer than I do. However, the concern I have is that ousting them will require electoral turnout. How do we ensure we don't just get repeats of what is going on in Ontario where Ford basically does a lot of this same playbook (if not quite as angry), but continues to get away with blatant corruption and winning elections because people are either not paying attention, believing the rhetoric, or just ignoring everything and not showing up to vote?
I see the argument that this is part of why Ford wants an election soon, as his tactic of blaming the feds for everything falls apart with Poilievre in charge, but I still get concerned that people just don't care enough to make anything better.
I think people care, it's that no other party is making a cogent appeal to them. The NDP and Liberal moved to the right in order to counter Harper, that changed the dynamic of Canadian politics. Trudeau's handling of the COVID pandemic, especially the monthly payments (essentially a guaranteed annual wage) was extremely popular. That and other of his policies that went to the left of the NDP in 2015 were highly popular. The NDP, in 2015, moved to the right and neither Liberals nor NDP have picked up on the popularity of the Liberals' "left" policies since 2015. It's as if they want the Conservatives to win.
Poilievre has not been campaign tested. It is also difficult to point to anything substantive or positive that he has accomplished for the nation. You have to be more than something more than someone who opposes everything. You have to stand for something, and with respect to what Poilievre stands for beyond AXE THE RAX and cutting taxes for the wealthy , there isn't much to see. I believe the next election has to be one where we vote for the candidate that has the best chance of defeating a Conservative. At present I am concerned about the Liberal Leadership contest. If the Liberals go into the leadership race with 10 or 12 contestants, as appears likely then in my view they are handing the election to the Tories on a platter.
PP has been campaigning his whole life. He knows how to work a crowd, he knows you don't really need policy anymore. He is out there with working class people almost every week telling them that he stands for them and that he understands their problems. That all a leader has to do
This is the most prepared man and political machine this election.
Even though I am at the opposite end of the political spectrum to this man, I can't deny that he has done the work to earn power. I only wish my representatives had worked this hard.
Yes, He is out there doing all of that. This the man who when he was in Stephen Harper's cabinet, promoted right to work law. If you for one second believe this supports worker's rights then you better give your head a shake and have it examined while you are at it As for doing the work to earn power. He has certainly embraced every neo fascist right wing nut bar group, out there. n my book that earns him nothing but a place in the scrapbook of history.
I didn’t say he supports worker’s rights. He will do anything to secure a path to power, even if it means talking to and listening to workers. He has a clear history of making working lives worse. As well he shows every indication that he will continue fight against the protections that the labour movement has won for us over the years.
The conservative project is to create a past to idolize by making the present miserable.
You are right, but as Glenn T. notes, no other party is working at countering his argument. They are leaving the whole show to Poilievre and sometimes I think the Liberals and the NDP want the Conservatives to win.
I don't think the NDP and the Liberals want the Conservatives to win, but I do think they are so ego driven they are unwilling to cooperate, by staying out of races they can't win. Why run a candidate in a riding that you lose by thousands of votes, when the second place party in the Conservative riding could easily win, if you did not contest the riding? It's time to get rid of First past the post, a promise Trudeau reneged on exhibiting once again self interest over national interest.
No.
I disagree. PP took advantage of an opportunity. He saw the dissatisfaction with Trudeau and the LPC party. It doesn't take smarts to see that was happening. He used the increasing hate for the PM and Liberal government to his advantage, changing his policies on Covid-19, mandates and vaccinations 180° to suit a growing anxiety, frustration, and anger for how long it took to get some semblance of control over the pandemic. He rubbed shoulders with the conveyors and had photo ops with some of Canada's worst, like Jeremy MacKenzie, Diagolon leader, etc., bought them coffee and doughnuts. Since then he has balked everything the Liberal/NDP partnership introduced. Is that smart? I guess it depends on your perspective. I think it's disingenuous and conniving. If I'm right it will not take long before he shoots himself In the foot because their are already many people who don't trust or like him but will vote for him anyway. He is walking on some very thin ice because Canadians are expecting him to make everything perfect.
If Canadians are expecting Poilievre to make everything perfect, then they are deluding themselves. Above all the least we should expect of any politician is some degree of ethical standard, integrity, transparency and common decency. We have seen none of that from Poilievre. If as Poilievre claims, Canada is broken, then the Conservatives since their merger with the Alliance have done far more than any other party to that being so.
The dishonourable member from Carleton is an IDU puppet. Stop carrying on as if he and CONs are still a legitimate party. https://watchdocumentaries.com/active-measures/
Why do I feel like an aspirin and an anti anxiety med...with every Political write up ?? !!! The USA has been broken, at least for now ( how happy is Putin do you think ???? ) And it will be a HARD road back, uphill to regain their full Freedoms lost. But for Canada to fall too, from their unfathomable bombastic mistake, it will take more Gravol than I have available ..... kidding, not kidding.
Indeed. Poillievre is an angry man. Maybe he should be angry. Maybe, and I believe this wholeheartedly, it's just more of Poillievre being Poillievre. Angry Man has been his role in Parliament for the past 20 years. He knows no other way of facing the cameras. He is not Policy Man. He is not Visionary Man. He is not, and never will be, Statesman Man. Poillievre is angry man. Period.
I would call him angry teenager because that is when his extreme form of conservatism was birthed.
"When they do, the left ought to be there" Huh? The basic problem in Canadian politics is that there is no "left" to "be there". Until we have an effective socialist party in this country, the libertarians will keep on, not winning, but bypassing failure.
There is a left it just is what it is everywhere, divided lazy and as untethered from reality in its own way as the right is. If you mean the NDP, that's not "the left" it's just slightly more progressive centrism.
The right just appeals to a lot more people because pulling the ladder up on people who are different appeals to a lot more people. That's all poilievre is doing, the unpopularity of Trudeau just makes the job easier.
I still think his refusal to obtain security clearance is a major red flag. Most reporting on this is suppressed right now, maybe a campaign will shine a spotlight on this.
It's been observed that successful leaders tend to ride the one thing that brought them to power, and have great trouble changing course in that underlying theme, and then fail when their theme no long forts the times.
Trudeau's 'sunny ways' has log expired, but that's to be expected after a decade.
PP may be the first leader who's theme ('are the tax') has already expired before he even takes office. He will probably still win by momentum, but can he pivot to the next theme ('Trump')?
Agreed. Pierre isn't suited to deal with Trump and has no clear solutions other than slogans and sound bytes that suggest how much Trudeau "sucks".
David:
One quibble about an otherwise sensible analysis: when you use the phrase "post-pandemic", it reinforces the lazy complacency that is still costing lives and burdening more and more of us with persistent health damage. You should know better.
Otherwise, nice work!
I think there are many things that are outside the control of politicians. At best they can nudge things one way or another. Change takes longer than people appreciate too so I won't be surprised if we aren't going to experience one government after another getting voted out. Some things are going to make life for Canadians more difficult and they happen far from our boarders.
I've got $5 on the Bloc forming the official opposition. It's not what I want, it's what I predict.