An RCMP Report Warns That Canada Faces Major Threats in the Coming Years. No Kidding.

There's more to the experiences of people than aggregate data. And we need to reckon with that.

‘This is probably fine.’ Source: Unsplash. Author: Issy Bailey.

Hidden in the tumult of the news cycle, an internal RCMP report last week about medium-term risks facing Canada should have generated more attention. On March 10th, the CBC reported on the document after Matt Malone of Thompson Rivers University obtained it through an access to information request.

The report warns of various crises shaping life in Canada now and in the years to come, including climate change and extreme weather, political polarization, geopolitical conflict, an increasingly polluted information space, and economic decline — not the least of which is the fact that home ownership is increasingly out of reach for so many of the country’s younger population.

According to the report “The coming period of recession will also accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations.” A growing wealth gap has long been a gathering storm, and that storm is now making landfall in full-effect. It will bring nasty outcomes.

Writing in Better Dwelling, Stephen Punwasi argues “The transfer of housing from end users (or even “mom & pop” landlords) to institutional investors results in communities being reduced into yield generating assets. As a consequence, prioritization of wealth extraction occurs without regard for long-term sustainability, leaving communities vulnerable to shock.” He reminds us that such shifts have been central to political instability and even collapse in the past. And some tend to imagine we are infinitely resilient, or such things could never happen to use — even after the Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc — the compounding weight of crises is a potential Voltron of doom.

As Canada faces persistently high interest rates, inflation, and the threat of recession, it’s not just those left outside of home ownership worrying about shelter. While mortgage delinquency rates are still low compared to recent years, they’re on the rise and there’s plenty of risk to homeowners who aren’t used to, or prepared for, high interest rates. (For a great breakdown of the issue, check out Politico’s assessment on the matter from last week.)

Homeowners are worried about mortgage delinquency. A recent poll found that nearly 20 percent of mortgage carriers worried that it was likely they’d default on their payments within the next two months. The concern comes on the heels of growing household debt, which made Canadians the most indebted in the G7.

Economists and partisan politicos may tell you mortgage delinquencies are lower than in the past, that GDP growth (or stagnation) doesn’t tell the whole story, that the country’s productivity is higher than you might think, or that we’re ahead of comparator states on one measure or another. We should listen to what they have to say.

We ought to take the data seriously and not allow ourselves to be misled about the state of the economy by giving into thoughtless doomsday proclamations (including those put forth by different partisan politicos or, for that matter, pundits). Properly assessing risk requires us to understand and engage with the data, rather than shadowbox our feelings about what the data ‘must’ look like.

And yet, people’s perceptions and their experience beyond the numbers is data, too. The country isn’t collapsing in on itself, it’s not a global laggard on each and every measure compared to peer countries, but people are struggling and that points to serious problems now and in the future. Canada faces a deep and persistent housing crisis for owners and renters alike. Food insecurity and food bank usage is up. Inflation is a threat to purchasing power. The healthcare system is stretched up to and beyond the brink. And then there’s climate change.

Climate catastrophes will wreak havoc and exacerbate other challenges, as well as posing its own. Last year was the hottest on record for the planet and Canada’s worst wildfire year since data collection began — the worst so far, that is. Things will get worse before they get better, assuming we do enough to slow and mitigate climate change in the years to come.

Telling someone “Things aren’t as bad as you think, just look at this graph” is not an effective strategy for alleviating anxiety and suffering. Physical and material security may indeed require a psychological shift, but they also require a material shift. A fall 2023 survey found that nearly half of Canadians are living paycheque to paycheque. No one is ever going to feel rosy about the future while they’re a missed payday away from going broke.

As many others have pointed out in one iteration or another, more of us are an unlucky break away from homelessness than we are from the security that accompanies wealth. People aren’t imagining this anxiety; they’re not inventing it. They’re living it. It’s real and it’s cruel and it’s a risk to the country’s stability, not to mention the well-being of millions who struggle to get through the week.

Now is a good time for us to engage in a serious, good faith discussion about class in this country and attendant material realities. That discussion ought to include a reasonable assessment of the data and the circumstances it attempts to capture, but we simply cannot take any insipid ‘Canada the good’ claims, dubious comparisons, or attempts to minimize the very real suffering so many in this country endure.

I’m not saying I’m holding my breath, expecting this to happen, especially as the next federal election creeps ever closer. But we can almost certainly do better on this front than we have been so far. Sure, that’s a low bar. But right now, it may be the only one we can step over.